New Delhi [India]: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is likely to keep the repo rate on hold for now as inflation figures seem to be under control and any reduction in the key interest rate is expected only in the early part of 2024, Morgan Stanley said in a report.
The Reserve Bank of India, in its first monetary policy review meeting in 2023-24, decided to keep the key benchmark interest rate — the repo rate — unchanged at 6.5 per cent, to assess the effects of the policy rate tightening done so far. The RBI’s next monetary policy committee meeting is scheduled to be held during June 6-8, 2023.
RBI has so far raised the repo rate, the rate at which it lends to banks, by 250 basis points cumulatively since May 2022 in the fight against inflation.
“While in our base case we expect a shallow rate cut cycle to start from 1Q24, we see risks of the same starting earlier based on an improving inflation outlook,” the global investment banking firm said in the report titled ‘India Economics – Macro Indicators Chartbook: Growth Sustains Momentum; Macro stability in Check’ co-authored by Upasana Chachra and Bani Gambhir.
According to the report, Morgan Stanley expects rates to be on hold in 2023 as it predicts retail inflation to remain below the 6 per cent mark decisively.
In India, headline consumer price index-based (CPI) inflation (or retail inflation) has gradually declined from its peak of 7.8 per cent in April 2022 to 5.7 per cent in March 2023 and is projected to ease further to 5.2 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2023-24 financial year.
“The headline CPI print for March was in line with expectations. We expect inflation to decelerate more decisively in the quarter ending June, to below 5 per cent, supported by favourable base effect and moderating commodity prices,” the report said.
Raising interest rates is a monetary policy instrument that typically helps suppress demand in the economy, thereby helping the inflation rate decline and vice versa.
